OPINION | A More Dangerous Region In 2026

In 2026, a year before American generals predicted China would invade self-rule Taiwan, tensions are expected to escalate in the Indo-Pacific region.

The United States and its chief rival China would increase shadowing each other and testing each other’s response as increasing vessel and aircraft traffic are seen in the region.

Accidents and miscalculations could happen that could even lead to conflict ahead of the 2027 prediction.

Taiwan is the final piece of a jigsaw that will reunify with China after it annexed Tibet in the 1950s, Hong Kong was returned by the British in 1997 and Portugal gave up Macau in 1999.

Taiwan, where the nationalist Kuomintang retreated after its defeat in mainland China in 1949, is the biggest prize as the China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) celebrates its 100 year birth.

Beijing is expected to ramp up military drills around the island, increasing maritime and airspace intrusions into Taipei’s territories, testing its responses.

Some of the Chinese aircraft may enter into the Philippines’ Air Defense Identification Zone (PADIZ) as the country is near Taiwan, the world’s largest producer of semiconductors.

If Taiwan falls into Beijing’s hands, China will gain enormous strategic advantage, piercing the US’ first island chain, an imaginary defensive line from South Korea and Japan in the north that runs south into Taiwan and the Philippines in the south.

From Taiwan, China can project power into the Pacific, threatening Guam and Northern Marianas and the eastern seaboard of Japan and the Philippines.

China could also gain full control of the South China Sea, where an estimated $3 trillion worth of seaborne goods pass every year, choking international trade.

It has serious implications in security and international trade, affecting Western European states half the world away.

The US and its allies, particularly Japan, will not sit idle as China flexes its muscles around Taiwan.

Washington is boosting its deterrence, encouraging Japan and South Korea to increase their defense spending and help the US defend the region.

Yonaguni, a tiny island, about 60 nautical miles east of Taiwan, is at the center of gravity as US and Japanese forces harden its defenses, standing guard to Chinese activities.

Washington has been rushing logistics and equipment to prepare Yonaguni for a quick response in case a full-scale Chinese invasion happens.

Apart from Taiwan, two areas in the West Philippine Sea are potential flash points in 2026 - Scarborough and Sabina Shoal as China and the US fight for control of the strategic sealanes.

Chinese illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous (ICAD) behaviors are expected to increase next year around these two shoals as Beijing is determined to exercise its sovereignty claims on these disputed territories.

Tensions are expected to escalate as the US and the Philippines would also increase freedom of navigation patrols and operations in these parts of the West Philippine Sea.

For the Philippines, Scarborough Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc, as well as Sabina Shoal or Escoda Shoal, are red lines.

China’s full control over these areas would threaten Philippines’ national security, deny Filipino fishermen their livelihood, and impede navigation and resupply to Philippine-held territories in the South China Sea, particularly on the grounded BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal.

For China, full control of the South China Sea, where it has also built a wall of sand to create its own first island chain, was imperative to be able to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

It has to protect its flanks, and protect it from where its adversaries could launch a counter offensive.

It is China’s weakest link and most vulnerable point.

Luckily, for Beijing, the Philippines is much weaker than China and one of the US’ concerns in the defense of the region.

Thus, in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed by the US Congress this month, Washington is providing $3.5 billion security assistance to the Philippines.

It finally passed the 2024 Philippine Enhanced Resiliency Act (PERA) bill in the NDAA, which allocates $500 million annual Foreign Military Financing to the Philippines for five years, starting in 2026 to 2031.

Another $1 billion in defense-related loans was extended to the Philippines, which can be repaid after 17 years at an interest rate to be determined by the Secretary of State.

This is the biggest ever security aid given by the US to the Philippines in years.

Manila is after all a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally and the oldest security treaty partner in the Indo-Pacific region.

The military aid would go a long way to modernize the Philippines’ military, long neglected by Filipino leaders who focused on crushing internal security threats from Muslim separatists and Communist rebels.

However, the military assistance is still not enough to fund the Philippines’ military upgrade plan to match its peers in Southeast Asia.

It needed more to achieve President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s military equipment wish list drawn up in 2024, valued at P2 trillion or $34 billion.

It would probably cost more than double the Marcos Jr’s wish list to build a credible defense posture and contribute to regional deterrence.

Japan is spending $70 billion in defense and roughly two percent of its gross domestic product to help the US, which has a defense budget of $900 billion in 2026.

The Philippines will only spend $5 billion in defense, with more than 50 percent going into soldiers’ salaries and allowances. It is less than one percent of its GDP.

The Philippines has to increase its dense spending to at least two percent of its GDP to catch up with its peers and develop a credible defense posture.

The Philippines cannot always rely on its allies, the US, Japan, Australia and other like-minded countries to defend its national interests.

It has to stand on its own. It should make an effort to survive a conflict on its own beyond 30 days.

China has been consistently violating the country’s sovereign rights, intruding closer to territorial waters.

For instance, a Chinese frigate was recently seen loitering 40 nautical miles off Capones island in Zambales, prompting the Navy to send two warships to drive away the Jiangkai II-class Chinese frigate.

These kinds of incidents would increase in 2026 as both China and the US continue to test each other’s responses in the battle of patience in volatile waters in the region.

Of course, the Philippines will be caught in the middle and should prepare if and when these two powers come into blows over Taiwan.

The Philippines must prepare for 2026. It may be a more dangerous year.