Wondering Why COVID-19 Cases Suddenly Dropped? OCTA Offers Explanation

The OCTA Research group said on Monday, Nov. 22, the Philippines “might be close to herd immunity” as COVID-19 cases continue to drop.

OCTA fellow Guido David told “Agenda” on One News that the sharp decline in cases could be a result of people developing immunity after contracting the disease and through vaccination.

David said the drop could really be surprising since the cases went down to around 1,300 a day from a high of 26,000.

But David noted such development was also observed in other countries like India where in some areas, 50% were found to have developed antibodies. This means the COVID cases could actually be higher especially when there were surges, but were not reported.

David said the situation could be the same in the Philippines. He explained around 800,000 people had been infected with COVID-19 in Metro Manila, which was not even 10% of the population. “Pero sabihin natin, suppose it was higher like 20% of the population and then you add ‘yung vaccination, then you could already be at mga 80% with antibodies so that is significant protection.”

In theory and based on pattern, David stated “we might be close to herd immunity” due to natural immunity and mass inoculation.

He said this theory could be validated once surveys are conducted by testing the antibody levels of people.

According to David, some countries like Singapore could be having another surge because not many were affected by the earlier variants and thus people did not have natural immunity yet while others like the United States already removed mask mandate to try to get the old normal.

Prioritize high school and college students

David said the Philippines should also be careful in its policies. For instance, he stressed it would be better to prioritize high school and college students in reopening face-to-face (F2F) classes to avoid resurgence in cases.

“I would prefer na unahin natin of course ‘yung college level students. Most of them are 18 and above so most of them would be vaccinated,” he explained. “‘Yung mga high schools naman, senior high school, a lot of them will start to get vaccinated already, ‘yung mga 12 to 17…I'm somewhat concerned.”

On Nov. 17, the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases approved limited F2F classes for all college programs in areas under Alert Level 3 and below.

The limited in-person classes are subject to certain conditions, such as 50% indoor venue capacity, no opposition from the local government unit concerned and participation of fully vaccinated teaching and non-teaching personnel and students only.

The OCTA fellow said he would like those six to 12 years old to be the last to go back to school because they are unvaccinated, thus the risks should already be at their lowest.

“Maybe when the risk level is so low na, kung konti na talaga ‘yung cases, maybe we could take chances kung kahit hindi pa vaccinated,” David said.

“Pero I know personally, maraming parents are concerned for the kids if we open face-to-face classes for…elementary students, pre-school. It's definitely a concern,” he added.

On Nov. 15, after a year and eight months, thousands of young learners participated in the pilot F2F classes nationwide amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Department of Education is anticipating the expansion of F2F classes in all grade levels by January next year if the pilot resumption is successful.

David also said he could also see many minors even below 12 in public places because of the “holiday spirit,” but as the Department of Health reminded, people must be cautious even if they were excited to go out after being locked down for a while.

In the United Kingdom, David underscored the infection rate among minors was 15 times higher than senior citizens.

He said it was concerning that minors are not wearing face masks properly when outside. Many of them are also unvaccinated, thus the public must be careful.

Even though they support the opening up of the economy, David stressed that it still should be balanced. “We should be cautious pa rin naman and kaya rin natin napababa ‘yung cases because people generally followed minimum public health standards.”

“Hindi naman ibig sabihin bukas na lang tayo ng bukas without thinking about ‘yung mga consequences so ‘yun…‘yung mga bata,” he said.

Downtrend

David reiterated they are projecting COVID-19 cases to hit less than 1,000 per day nationwide by December and it might even drop to 500 infections on Christmas Day.

David said they do not foresee another major surge unless new variant surfaces.

“So far, we're not seeing any variant so kumbaga the forecast is good for next year basta walang new variant and we continue vaccinations,” David added.

On Monday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported 984 new cases, pushing to 2,826,853 total number of COVID cases nationwide. At least 19,798 of the total cases are still active.

The DOH also took note of the 2,229 newly recorded recoveries, bringing the total of those who recuperated from the illness to 2,759,767. As for the number of COVID-related deaths, the DOH reported 218 additional fatalities, bringing total deaths to 47,288.

“Well, in fairness naman most areas outside Metro Manila are in a good situation. A lot of them [are] better pa nga than Metro Manila ‘yung numbers,” David said.

“[T]he rest of the regions outside Metro Manila, we're in a good situation. We're averaging just 1,300 cases per day in the whole country and around 300 of that are in Metro Manila,” he said in a mix of English and Filipino.