Not Enough Sympathy Vote? Detained Duterte Headed For Landslide Victory In Davao, But His Bets Fall Short In Senate Race

Detained former president Rodrigo Duterte is leading by a wide margin in the mayoralty race in Davao City, per the partial and unofficial results.

Duterte garnered 617, 123 votes while his rival, lawyer Karlo Nograles who is seen to be backed by the Marcos administration, had 75,869 votes as of 9:54 p.m. on Monday, May 12, election day.

The other three candidates – Rod Cubos, Jonathan Julaine and Joselito Tan – got 7370, 1,239 and 1032 votes, respectively.

Incumbent Mayor Sebastian Duterte, who is running for vice mayor, is leading over closest rival, the Marcos-endorsed Bernie Al-ag.

Sebastian got 606,566 votes while Al-ag got 74, 054.

The other candidates, Oyie Soriano-Barcena and Marcos Alcebar got 4, 917 and 1793 votes, respectively.

Davao City Rep. Paolo Duterte is also ahead of his opponent, Migs Nograles. Paolo got 1,371 votes, while Migs had 572 as of 9:04 p.m. on Monday.

Paolo’s son Omar Duterte, who is vying for the second congressional district of Davao City, is in a close fight with his opponent, Javi Garcia Campos. Paolo’s other son Rigo ran for city councilor.

Meanwhile, after casting her vote in Davao City where she and five members of her family are running for local posts in the midterm polls, impeached Vice President Sara Duterte has declared a campaign against political dynasties.

“We should change it,” she said.

Duterte’s father, two brothers and two nephews ran for local posts in Davao City.

The Vice President clarified, however, that she is not campaigning against families running for local posts in the city.

“I am campaigning about us selecting people based on their family affiliations,” she said.

The Dutertes have had a chokehold on the southern metropolis since 1986 following the EDSA revolt.

If Rodrigo wins while he is detained in The Hague for reported crimes against humanity, Sebastian will become the acting mayor of Davao City.

Not enough sympathy vote?

Allies of the Dutertes, however, is not seen to dominate the Senate despite the sympathy vote they were expected to gain from the arrest and detention of the former president in The Hague.

Based on partial and unofficial results as of today, May 13, 1:04 a.m., only reelectionist senators Bong Go, Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, Imee Marcos and former House deputy speaker Rodante Marcoleta are winning in the Senate race, along with Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar, who was endorsed by Vice President Sara Duterte even if she was part of the administration slate.

President Marcos looked set to win at least half of the available Senate seats, if Villar would be included, along with former senators Panfilo Lacson, Vicente Sotto III, ACT-CIS party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo and reelectionist senators Pia Cayetano and Lito Lapid.

The midterm election is seen as a referendum on Marcos’ leadership and a fierce proxy battle with his estranged vice president.

Although 18,000 positions including mayors, governors and lawmakers were up for grabs, attention was firmly on the race for the influential Senate, with a bitter row between Marcos and his popular Vice President dominating an election that could reshape the balance of power in the country of 110 million.

Analysts say a Marcos-friendly Senate would not only secure passage of key legislation and backing for his pro-US foreign policy, but it could help him decide the political future of his adversary – Sara –a likely 2028 presidential contender with Marcos limited to a single term.

Official results from all electoral contests were expected to be announced starting today, May 13.

What began as a united front that swept the 2022 election unraveled last year into an acrimonious feud, marked by a torrent of personal accusations and a bid to impeach the Vice President on allegations she misused funds, amassed unexplained wealth and threatened to assassinate Marcos, the first lady and the House speaker.

High-stakes contest

Ederson Tapia, a political scientist at the University of Makati, said that while the voting was going in Marcos' favor, his influence over the Senate would not be guaranteed.

“We will see even more fragmentation at the Senate, especially, since many will jockey for 2028,” he said of the next presidential election. “Duterte's influence cannot be written off altogether.”

The Senate contest is critical, with its 24 members to become jurors if an impeachment trial goes ahead, where the Vice President faces removal from office and a lifetime ban. At least 16 votes – a two-thirds majority – are needed to convict her.

Fueling the flames of the already charged election was the former president’s arrest by Philippine police in March at the request of the International Criminal Court, where he is detained and facing trial over a “war on drugs” during which thousands were killed.

Both Dutertes have denied wrongdoing and have challenged the proceedings against them.

Sara Duterte has accused Marcos of trying to destroy their family politically and of selling out sovereignty in giving up a former president to a foreign court, both of which he has rejected.

Meanwhile, the Vice President said she assured her father last week that more than two of their allies could secure Senate seats, citing survey results.

The Duterte-led PDP-Laban backed 10 Senate bets.

Sara is expected to travel to The Hague later this month to celebrate her birthday on May 31 with her parents.

As for her looming impeachment trial at the Senate, the Vice President said she is prepared for any outcome.

Impeached by the House of Representatives on Feb. 5, the Vice President is facing charges of betrayal of public trust, violation of the Constitution and corruption. — With Neil Jayson Servallos