COVID-19 Cases Rising In Zamboanga City, Batangas And Davao City – UP Report

The government should continue “significant restrictions” in Metro Manila and Cebu City and make “aggressive contact tracing” – with the help of police and volunteer students – a centerpiece of its strategy against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a University of the Philippines report recommended.

The UP report cautioned about a “resurgence” of infections as quarantine measures are eased to stop the economy from crashing. It also warned that Zamboanga City may be on its way to being in the same situation as Cebu City. Batangas and Davao City were also flagged as “high risk” areas in need of monitoring by the government.

“Given the recent decision by government to loosen restrictions and based on the experience of other countries, the likelihood of a resurgence seems to be not a question of if but where, and how bad,” according to the report titled “COVID-19 Forecasts in the Philippines: Post-ECQ Report.” The report was dated May 20 and published on May 22.

The report stressed the need for vigilance even in areas under general community quarantine or out of any form of lockdown. “Our goal ultimately is not just to flatten the curve but to bend it downwards,” it said.

The government should also ensure that health systems “are capable of detecting, testing, isolating and treating every case of COVID-19, as well as tracing every contact.”

Cops for contact tracing, testing for workers

Identifying high-risk individuals and targeting them for isolation “can break infection transmission and avoid reverting to enhanced community quarantine or unnecessarily prolonging the transition to general community quarantine,” the report said.

Instead of just manning checkpoints and arresting quarantine violators, the report suggested that the Philippine National Police be “re-task(ed)… to take the lead in contact tracing teams” since PNP members are equipped with skills for basic detective work.

Volunteer students from medical, nursing and other health professions may also be given minimal training. The police and students should be accorded financial and insurance support, protective equipment and digital devices for documentation. Meanwhile, a “culture of open data sharing” of anonymous information “can bring the country towards a better normal,” the report said.

At the same time, the report urged that “first priority” be given to the testing of workers in the economic sectors initially allowed to resume operations, to be followed by testing in other sectors as the economy is further reopened.

The report recommended the local trial of “group testing protocols,” in which specimens are swabbed from multiple individuals tested using a single test kit. It also called for randomized testing in zone-based populations to provide “a more reliable basis for determining prevalence rates” and guide workplace policies.

The report also called for the allocation of more funds to higher educational institutions such as UP for research on COVID-19.

“While we have collectively achieved a lot together, we must not be complacent as we are not yet on the other side of the curve. We are still in the early part of managing this crisis. The pandemic is ongoing and continues to be a clear and present danger to us all,” read the report.

High risk areas

Apart from the National Capital Region and Cebu City, the report flagged the following as “high risk” areas: Batangas, Davao City and Zamboanga City.

Batangas and Davao City have low numbers of new daily reported cases in proportion to their populations – 1.5 new case for every one million inhabitants, and two per million, respectively.

But these areas have reproduction numbers above one. This means that every single confirmed COVID-19 case infects more than one person on average.

For Zamboanga City, the number of new daily reported cases (10 per one million) and the reproduction number (each COVID-19 case infects more than three other persons) are both “very high.”

This indicates that “numbers are escalating, and care must be taken to prevent the pandemic from spreading further.” The report warned: “If we are not careful, the city may follow the state of pandemic in Cebu City.”

Notably, no new case was reported in Zamboanga City for the week of April 26 to May 2. However, the number jumped to 77 for the week of May 10 to May 16.

According to projections based on the current trend of transmission, Zamboanga City may have 950 cases and 17 deaths by June 15, several times greater than the 121 cases and two deaths recorded as of May 16.

Batangas may see a smaller jump to 315 cases and 34 deaths by June 15 (from 145 cases and 14 deaths as of May 16). Similarly, Davao City is projected to have 310 cases and 44 deaths by June 15 (from 187 cases and 22 deaths as of May 16).

Areas with “medium risk” include Laguna, Oriental Mindoro, Samar, Lapu-Lapu City and Mandaue City. These local government units “will need to be monitored closely for possible outbreaks in the next few weeks.”

At “low risk” were the provinces of Albay, Antique, Bataan, Benguet, Bulacan, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Cavite, Ifugao, Iloilo, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Nueva Ecija, Occidental Mindoro, Pampanga, Quezon, Rizal, Romblon, Tarlac, and Cebu (excluding the high-risk Cebu City, and the medium-risk Lapu-Lapu City and Mandaue City).

Previous forecasts true in the regions

The UP report noted that the situation in Metro Manila and Cebu ended up reporting worse numbers than its projections.

In its April 28 report, the UP team forecast that there would be 6,000 cases and 430 deaths in the capital region by May 15 based on the trends at the time. However, the actual numbers reported as of May 15 were 6,981 confirmed cases and 578 deaths.

The report noted that this may be because of delays in the reporting of current data, which meant there were factors not accounted for in the model of the April 28 report. The other possibility is that trends in the NCR changed for the worse.

Similarly, the 1,743 confirmed cases in Cebu as of May 15 far exceeded the forecast of 1,300 projected cases, because the UP team had assumed a decrease of transmissions that did not pan out. On the other hand, only 25 died – half the 50 deaths projected.

As for the other regions, the actual numbers somewhat matched the short-term forecasts of the number of cases and deaths as of April 28.

In Calabarzon, the forecast was 1,400 cases and 85 deaths, while the actual numbers were 1,340 cases and 91 deaths.

In Central Luzon, the forecast was 400 cases and 28 deaths, while the actual numbers were 410 cases and 27 deaths. In Panay, the forecast was 65 cases and six deaths, while the actual numbers were 76 cases and seven deaths.

Davao City performed somehow better than the forecast of 190 cases and 30 deaths. The actual numbers were 177 cases and 22 deaths.

The report was authored by OCTA Research fellows Guido David of the Institute of Mathematics and Ranjit Singh Rye of the Department of Political Science, and OCTA Research associate Ma. Patricia Agbulos. Professors Erwin Alampay, Rodrigo Angelo Ong and Benjamin Vallejo Jr., Ideacorp Inc. chief executive officer Emmanuel Lallana, and Civika Asian Development Academy managing director Elmer Soriano contributed.