Single Mistake Can Trigger SCS Conflict – Marcos

MELBOURNE – A single mistake or a misunderstood move could lead to a conflict in the South China Sea, President Marcos said, as he expressed support for efforts to maintain peace in the disputed area while easing up the rhetoric of parties involved in the maritime row.

In an interview with ABC News aired last Monday, March 4, Marcos expressed support for diplomatic partnerships Quad and AUKUS, saying these represent a stronger front in maintaining the peace in the South China Sea.

Quad is a partnership among Australia, India, Japan and the US that seeks to promote an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific. AUKUS, meanwhile, is a trilateral security partnership among Australia, the UK and US, whose initiatives include supporting Canberra in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy.

“It is a response really to a differing situation and more dangerous, more risky situation than we had before,” Marcos said.

When asked why he thought the situation in the region has become more dangerous, the President replied: “Because the potential for outright conflict is much higher now than it was before.”

“And we worry in the Philippines because it could come from not a strategic decision by anyone, saying OK, we’re going to war, but just by…some servicemen making a mistake or some action that’s misunderstood,” he added.

Such a possibility, Marcos pointed out, is the reason why the ongoing attempt is “to try and lower the temperature, ease up on the rhetoric and communicate and just continue to communicate.”

Marcos recalled his visit to China last year, where he proposed the establishment of a hotline between him and Chinese President Xi Jinping to prevent untoward incidents in the South China Sea. The President, however, revealed that he does not have a personal line with his Chinese counterpart yet.

Asked if he expects the Australian Navy to come to the defense of the Philippines in the event of a conflict with China over the South China Sea, Marcos noted that Manila does not have a formal agreement or treaty with Canberra similar to what it has with Washington.

Australia is one of the two countries with which the Philippines has a visiting forces agreement, the other being the US.

Last year, Marcos and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement elevating their countries’ partnership from comprehensive to strategic, citing their long history of cooperation and friendship.

Balikatan

The military forces of Australia, France and Japan are expected to join what may be the biggest ever reiteration of the annual Balikatan exercises between the Philippines and the United States next month.

Balikatan executive agent Col. Michael Logico shared that aside from the US Indo pacific Command (INDOPACOM), “we are also going to be expecting the involvement of the Australian Defense Force and also the French Navy.”

Representatives and delegates from other countries across the globe are also expected to participate as observers who will witnesses the war games to be carried out in different parts of the country, including the waters of the West Philippine Sea (WPS) and Batanes, which is close to Taiwan.

“We have also sent our invitation to the Japanese Self Defense Forces although right now, I have not yet confirmed if they have accepted the invitation to join us in the exercises,” he told reporters at a briefing on Tuesday, March 5.

“Aside from that, we have also invited observers to be joining us in the international service program so there is a list of countries that will be involved in the IOP (international observer program) and their role there is just to observe the exercise,” he said.

If the invitation to join is accepted, Logico said that Australia, France and Japan will have direct participations in the Balikatan exercises, scheduled to start in the third week of April and continue until the first week of May.

He said Batanes is one of the locations that the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is considering, as the combined military exercises now seek to venture away from traditional training areas like Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija and the Colonel Ernesto Ravina Air Base in Tarlac.

Logico said Balikatan 2024 will also see maritime exercises west of Palawan, including the WPS, and integrated air missile defense exercises in Central Luzon utilizing the military’s newly-acquired weapon systems from the AFP Modernization Program, where interoperability between the AFP’s weapon systems and that of the US will be tested both through live fire and virtual or simulation.

He said China will expectedly be monitoring or watching the exercises at sea but that will not be an issue since China has done so in previous Balikatan exercises.

This year, Logico said the combined military exercises will not only focus on military drills but also on non-physical domains like cybersecurity.

He added that there will be more interagency collaboration, which means involving the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), the Philippine National Police (PNP) “and also other invited participants for the cyber defense exercises and information warfare exercises.”

AFP modernization

The House of Representatives under the leadership of Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez has declared its support for the modernization program of the AFP under President Marcos, who is also its commander-in-chief.

“We stand united in support of President Marcos Jr.’s firm resolve to enhance our defense capabilities to uphold our country’s sovereignty and protect our national interest in the West Philippine Sea,” Romualdez said.

In his keynote address at the Lowly Institute in Australia, Marcos said the Philippines will continue to upgrade the capabilities of the PCG and pursue the modernization of the AFP in line with his pronouncement that the Philippines shall never surrender even a square inch of its territory.

“The House pledges its full cooperation in the legislative process to ensure the timely implementation of measures to strengthen the PCG and modernize the AFP to bolster our country’s defense posture in the face of emerging challenges,” Romualdez stressed.

House lawmakers have underscored the need to develop major infrastructure projects in the Kalayaan Island Group and in Pag-asa Island to assert Philippine presence in the disputed territory in light of repeated incursions by Chinese vessels.

Reps. Geraldine Roman of Bataan, Jefferson Khonghun of Zambales, Francisco Paolo Ortega V of La Union and House deputy speaker David Suarez said they fully support Romualdez’s efforts to develop more permanent structures in the Philippine-occupied island groups. – With Michael Punongbayan, Delon Porcalla