Over P2 Per Liter Fuel Price Cut Seen Next Week

After recent sharp spikes at the pump, fuel prices are poised to drop by over P2 per liter next week amid a shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran, according to the Department of Energy.

DOE-Oil Industry Management Bureau assistant director Rodela Romero indicated potential price cuts of P1.60 to P2.10 per liter for diesel and P2 to P2.20 per liter for kerosene.

Gasoline prices, meanwhile, are likely to decrease by P1 to P1.40 per liter next week, she said.

The estimates reflect volatile trading activities in the global oil market over the past four days.

“Bearish factor that counterbalances the bullish price last week is the announcement of President Trump of possible ceasefire between Israel and Iran, thus, crude oil future extends drop,” Romero noted.

Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices has “sharply” declined due to easing worries over supply disruption in the Middle East.

Iran earlier threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route for 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply, after its war with Israel escalated with the involvement of the US.

“The market’s focus returned to fundamentals with the de-escalation of the conflict, with prices recovering from the drop early this week on the back of higher demand,” Bellas said.

Gasoline, diesel and kerosene prices increased by P3.50, P5.20 and P4.80 per liter this week, respectively.

To cushion the impact of surging fuel costs on motorists, oil firms this week agreed to implement a staggered scheme for the increases.

Keep watching oil prices – Tulfo

Sen. Raffy Tulfo has called on the Department of Transportation (DOTr) and DOE to continue monitoring Dubai crude oil prices, despite the reported ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Tulfo, who chairs the Senate committee on public services, called for the timely distribution of fuel subsidies to public utility vehicle (PUV) drivers and riders when pump prices hit the $80 per barrel threshold for a full month.

The senator said under the 2025 General Appropriations Act, the release of fuel subsidies is based on the DOE certification that the average price of Dubai crude, based on Mean of Platts Singapore, has reached $80 per barrel for one calendar month.

Tulfo said as of June 26, the average price of Dubai crude oil stood at $78 per barrel, still below the required threshold.

He warned of the effect on the transport sector of the price hikes, already implemented by some oil companies, with diesel rising by P2.60 per liter and gasoline by P1.75 per liter on June 24 and June 26, with further increases expected.

The senator said he coordinated with both the DOE and DOTr to ask about their contingency plans. DOE officer-in-charge Sharon Garin told him that the DOE’s role is limited to informing the DOTr and issuing the necessary certification once the $80 threshold is met.

Garin said the DOTr “decides when, how and how much to distribute.”

DOTr Undersecretary Ramon Reyes, for his part, confirmed their reliance on the DOE’s certification and the provisions of the General Appropriations Act before the release of the fuel subsidy.

Tulfo urged the DOE and DOTr to collaborate and find ways to extend immediate assistance to PUV drivers and riders already bearing the brunt of the increased fuel costs.

He also encouraged major oil companies to offer fuel discounts to PUV drivers while oil price rollbacks are not yet in effect.

“If the expected rollback next week doesn’t happen and crude prices continue to rise, the DOTr must ensure that the fuel subsidy is immediately distributed without delay,” Tulfo said. – With an additional report from Marc Jayson Cayabyab