Experts: COVID Situation In NCR Improving, But…

The OCTA Research group on Friday, April 23, warned against the lifting of the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) over the National Capital Region (NCR) despite a significant decrease in the COVID-19 reproduction number, saying the current trend is still “unstable.”

“We urge the national government as one possible benchmark for changing quarantine levels, is not to exit the MECQ until at least the (reproduction rate) is less than 0.9 in a sustained manner,” OCTA Research group fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said in an online forum organized by the Cardinal Santos Medical Center.

The COVID-19 reproduction number, also known as the R-naught or R0, indicates the number of persons that a positive individual can infect.

“You have to sustain the (reproduction rate) below one for at least several weeks,” Austriaco said, meaning this would need careful planning with regard to the length of the MECQ.

According to Austriaco’s OCTA colleague, Dr. Guido David, the COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR is currently at 0.99. This is a decrease from 1.96 recorded in the week of March 18 to 24.

“The situation has improved, and hopefully we continue to improve,” David said.

The recorded 1.96 reproduction rate was recorded a week before the NCR Plus – composed of Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite and Laguna – were placed under ECQ from March 29 to April 4 due to rising COVID-19 cases.

The ECQ period was extended for another week, from April 5 to April 11, until the government later downgraded the quarantine restrictions over the NCR Plus to MECQ from April 12 to April 30.

Read more: NCR Plus, Santiago City, Abra Downgraded To MECQ

But the decrease in the COVID-19 reproduction number is still unstable, David noted.

“What that means is that it could still increase; it is not a stable trend yet,” David said.

David added the reason why the reproduction number is unstable is that not all local government units (LGUs) in NCR have observed a decrease in new coronavirus cases.

Aside from this, David bared that the average daily cases in NCR for the past seven days has gone down – from 5,200 two weeks ago to 4,200.

Tighten border control

Meanwhile, another OCTA Research fellow, professor Ranjit Rye, proposed that the government tighten the country’s border control as a way to reduce viral transmission.

“Now is the time to further tighten our border controls, especially in our ports and airports. And of course tighten controls within and among provinces,” Rye said.

“This is important, we are not yet we were supposed to be as far as dealing with the surge is concerned,” he added. “Yes, it's slowing down, and that's good news, but we are still not where we are supposed to be which is still significant at over 4,000 cases (a day).”

“Now is not the time to loosen border controls, but to further strengthen and tighten border controls,” Rye further said.

On Feb. 26, the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases issued Resolution No. 101 issued a memorandum stating that it is up to the LGUs whether to require non-essential travelers to undergo mandatory COVID-19 testing.

Should the LGU still require travelers to prove they are COVID-free, it must either be a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, or a Food and Drug Administration-approved antigen test, the DILG memorandum read.

Read more: Check LGU Requirement On COVID-19 Testing Before Travel, DILG Says After Restrictions Eased

Meanwhile, the Department of Tourism (DOT), in a statement on Friday reiterated that non-essential travel in areas under NCR Plus is still not allowed.

The DOT said leisure travelers from NCR Plus “are encouraged to postpone their travel plans to any areas outside the bubble” until such time that the lifts the travel restrictions.

Back to GCQ?

What would it take for NCR to be placed under general community quarantine (GCQ) again? According to the OCTA Research fellows, one factor is if the COVID-19 reproduction number goes further down to 0.8.

Another factor, Austriaco said, would be a decrease in the hospital occupancy rate and intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy rate.

According to data provided by the Department of Health as of Friday, ICU beds in NCR hospitals are already 82 percent utilized.

“We're hoping to go down to something like 60 percent or even less for hospital occupancy and ICU occupancy,” Austriaco noted.

Austriaco admitted, however, that it would take some time for the active COVID-19 cases to go down.

“The key point of OCTA is that we cannot prematurely move until we have the IATF  set these milestones that we need to achieve,” Austriaco said.

“But the OCTA is very clear, we need to have the transmission down, we need to at least open up when the hospitals are ready to open up. Right now, they're filled up. Right now, ICU capacity is maxed out,” he added.

As of Friday, the Department of Health (DOH) has reported 8,719 new COVID-19 cases in the Philippines, bringing the  total to 979,940, of which 102,799 are active.

The DOH also recorded 13,812 recoveries and 159 additional deaths, bringing the total to 860,412 and 16,529, respectively.