DOH: Still No Delta Surge In NCR

While acknowledging an increase in COVID-19 cases, the Department of Health (DOH) insisted on Tuesday night, July 27, that there is still no evidence of a surge in the National Capital Region (NCR).

Addressing the observation of the OCTA Research group that there is now a surge of COVID cases in the NCR, the DOH said this concern should be carefully verified.

“We acknowledge that there is an increase of our case metrics, which is why we urge people to continue adhering to the minimum health standards and get vaccinated, and for our local government units to strictly implement our protocols. Otherwise, we might see daily active cases in NCR reach 11,000 by the end of September 2021 based on the projections calculated by FASSSTER with the assumption that the Delta variant is 60(%)more transmissible, a conservative estimate of how fast the Delta variant will spread,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a statement.

Citing data from the DOH Epidemiology Bureau and FASSSTER, Vergeire pointed out the NCR is showing a 19% increase for its two-week growth rate or TWGR and an average daily at-tack rate (ADAR) of six cases per 100,000 population, which puts the area at “moderate risk.”

The cities of Makati, Las Piñas, Pasay, Pasig, Taguig, Parañaque, Manila, Valenzuela, Navotas, Marikina and Caloocan all have positive TWGR – a trend reversal from negative two-week growth rates from three to four weeks ago. Vergeire said Makati, Las Piñas and Pasay have high-risk ADAR.

“In terms of our health care capacity, nationally we are seeing low health care and intensive care utilization rate. We are also closely monitoring pending ER admissions. While we have enough capacity as of now as evidenced by the low-risk HCUR and ICUR, we must continue our preparations to strengthen local health system capacities and further augment the needed resources to maintain these low-risk levels,” Vergeire said, referring to healthcare and intensive care unit utilization rates.

“We need to make sure that we have enough capacity to cope with the demand in the event that cases continue their upward trend,” Vergeire added.

Vergeire assured the public the DOH continues to closely monitor daily trends and is immediately flagging areas with increases in rates of transmission based on TWGR, in affected population as per ADAR, and/or health care utilization.

She said the DOH is working with the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, Metro Manila Center for Health Development, Regional Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit and City Epidemiology and Surveillance Units to ensure that signals of increase in cases are immediately flagged, investigated and addressed as soon as possible.

The DOH values the work of independent experts but Vergeire appealed to them to be more careful in making pronouncements in terms of the national situation, as this may cause more panic and fear.

“While we acknowledge the differences in the metrics and methods of analysis used by these independent groups, we share the same goal to keep the case numbers down and improve the health care system of the country,” Vergeire said.?

Granular lockdown

Local government units (LGU) in areas with current spikes in COViD-19 cases were advised to enforce granular lockdown.

“We urge LGUs who are observing case spikes to implement granular lockdowns and reduce the time for case detection to isolation,” Vergeire said on Wednesday, July 28.

Vergeire said there are pending appeals with the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases from LGUs for reclassification of their respective jurisdictions, based on a set of metrics.

“We have to hear the side of LGUs or LCEs as to the on-the-ground status of their local health capacity to check if there is a need to escalate or de-escalate,” she explained.

Vergeire stressed the need for LGUs to strengthen the implementation of strategies to keep case numbers down.

“Based on our latest analysis of our indicators, we may be able to maintain the status quo,” she noted.

DOH also reminded the public to completely and correctly follow the minimum public health standards and get vaccinated.

DOH-NCR regional epidemiologist Dr. Manuel Mapue said the increase in cases in the region is not steady and fast.

During the Laging Handa public briefing yesterday, Mapue said 25 cases of the highly transmissible Delta variant have so far been detected in NCR. Of the number, 10 came from Manila.

Mapue said eight of the Delta cases in NCR have already recovered, one has died while the rest are active cases.

To curb the rise in cases, Mapue said, it is important for everyone to strictly comply with minimum health standards.

He further gave assurance that the DOH is taking necessary measures to respond to a possible surge in cases.

Additional medicine, equipment as well as ambulance have been deployed to the different LGUs and hospitals.

DOH also reported that vaccination is also being ramped up, particularly among seniors and other vulnerable sectors.

Delta cases in PGH

Twenty-one of the 25 Delta cases reported in the NCR were tested or admitted at the Philippine General Hospital (PGH).

PGH spokesman Dr. Jonas del Rosario said only six patients were hospitalized while the rest were outpatient, including vaccinated health care workers.

In a radio interview, Del Rosario further reported that two of the patients, who were unvaccinated, succumbed to the infection at the emergency room as they were taken to the hospital al-ready in serious condition.

Four of the admitted patients have recovered, although only one of them has been vaccinated. The recovered patients only exhibited mild symptoms.

Del Rosario said the vaccinated patients are considered breakthrough infections.

At this time, Del Rosario said there are 117 confirmed COVID patients admitted at the PGH.

He said every confirmed COVID case undergoes genome sequencing due to the presence of Delta variant.

Despite the detection of Delta variant, PGH assured the public that there is no outbreak of the infection among the hospital personnel.